Turkey’s local polls mean 'election of punishment' for Erdogan 2024/4/1

 

Gabrielle (@gsdebinski)

Turkey’s local polls mean 'election of punishment' for Erdogan  

 People celebrate the victory of Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbul mayor and Republican People's Party candidate, in Istanbul, Turkey, April 1, 2024. (Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Turkish voters dealt a decisive blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in municipal polls Sunday, with the latter’s nationwide vote share falling 2% below the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), which secured 37.74% nationwide, Ezgi Akin writes in this thorough breakdown from Ankara. 

Crucially, the CHP tightened its grip on Turkey's largest metropolises, Istanbul and Ankara. Erdogan had been vying to wrest control of them to secure a mandate for his future political agenda, including a bid to tweak the constitution that analysts say would tighten his grip on power. The opposition also managed to reap wins in 16 provinces that were formally governed by the AKP and its allies.

Why it matters: Sunday’s results signaled a bruising fall from grace for Ergodan, who only 10 months ago won another five-year term for the presidency with 52% of the vote. Since then, the government has embarked on an aggressive policy of fiscal belt-tightening to address runaway inflation fueled by Erdogan’s longtime refusal to raise interest rates. The central bank recently hiked interest rates by another 500 basis points from 45% to 50% as inflation neared 70% in February, placing it in the ranks of inflationary basket cases like Venezuela, Lebanon and Argentina. Meanwhile, the cost of food soared 78% in 2023. 

Looking ahead: Erdogan struck a somber tone as he conceded the results, vowing to engage in “self-critcism with courage.” Analysts say that Erdogan has so far been unwilling to embrace the austerity measures his economic management team recommends to fully beat back inflation and attract much-needed foreign investment. But Sunday’s results might cause the incumbent to do precisely the opposite: retreat and lower borrowing costs to win back the disillusioned electorate that abandoned him.